The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is forecastinga sizable jump in new home sales in January. Based on responses to its Builder ApplicationSurvey (BAS), MBA estimates that applications for the purchase of newlyconstructed homes rose 18.4 percent compared to those during the previousJanuary and were up 34 percent from December. The change is not adjusted toreflect typical seasonal patterns.
Based on theapplication volume and other market data, MBA estimates sales during the monthwere at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 700,000 units. This would mark again of 26.4 percent from December’s pace of 554,000 units. On an unadjustedbasis, the estimated change from December was 35 percent, rising from 40,000 to54,000 new homes sold.
“Mortgage applicationsfor new homes surged in January and were up 18 percent on a year over yearbasis,” said Lynn Fisher, MBA Vice President of Research and Economics. “Thiscomplements other positive news on US job growth suggesting that economicfundamentals are strong. Based on applications, we estimate that new home saleswere running at a pace of 700,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis – thehighest such estimate in our survey which began in 2013.”
MBA says 71.7 percentof loan applications received during the month were for conventional loans and15.3percent, for FHA products. RHS/USDA loanshad a 1.2 percent share and VA loans accounted for 11.7 percent. The averageloan size of new homes decreased from $339,203 in December to $338,918 inJanuary.
MBA’s BuilderApplication Survey tracks application volume from mortgage subsidiaries of homebuilders across the country. Utilizing this information, as well as data fromother sources, MBA provides an early estimate of new home sales volumes at thenational, state, and metro level as well as counts of the types of loans usedby new home buyers. Official new home sales estimates are provided monthly bythe Census Bureau. It records sales at contract signing, which is typicallycoincident with the mortgage application. Census Bureau data on new home salesin January will be published on February 26.
On – 13 Feb, 2018 By Jann Swanson